Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s
chief economist, has warned that 15m UK jobs could be replaced by robots in the
future. In a speech to the Trade Unions
Congress, he said machines were now capable of “thinking as well as doing. The
set of human skills that machines could reproduce, at lower cost, has both
widened and deepened.”
“Clearly those in lower paying jobs are going
to be more at risk,” said Sarbjit Nahal at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, whose
report earlier this month calculated that UK employees on £30,000 or less were
five times more likely to be replaced by artificial intelligence in the next 20
years than those paid in excess of £100,000. Food preparation and transport
areas are likely to see more automation, as driverless trains and eventually
cars become more widely used.
Calculations by the BoE estimate
that one-third of UK jobs have more than 66 per cent chance of being replaced —
classing them as “high risk”.
This list does not only include
lower paying roles, and Mr Haldane added that the chance of accountants being
replaced is “a whopping 95 per cent”.
As well as skilled traders, anyone
working across the leisure industry is at a higher risk, according to the
figures.
A study by the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology recently showed that robots acting as bar staff were more efficient,
and less impartial, than humans.
Any job that involves significant
amounts of “cognition and creativity” is least likely to be taken over.
“No one anytime soon is going to
choose a robot to cut their hair,” Mr Haldane said in his speech. Nor are they
going to choose a robot to look after their young children or elderly parents.”
Both high and low skilled roles are
expected to be safer, leading to the term “hollowing out” for those jobs in the
middle that are more vulnerable.
Venture capitalist Marc Andreesen has
described a world where there are two types of employees — those who own the
robots and those who work for them.
Oxford research, used by the BoE as
the basis of its analysis, lists roles such as occupational therapists and
healthcare and social workers as having among the lowest probability of being
replaced. Specialist jobs, from surgeons and dentists to firefighters, also
rank among the least vulnerable positions. Farmers, athletic trainers and the
clergy also have less than a 0.01 per cent chance of being replaced. Other
professions that require emotional intelligence are also expected to be safe. “Anything where face-to-face meetings are
key,” said Mr Nahal.
One question raised is why the
numbers of jobs continue to rise in spite of increased automation. One reason,
according to Bank of America, is that more robots require more engineers to
tend the robots. As many as 10m jobs have been created by increasing use of
automation across a host of industries, with another 3.5m set to be created
before 2020.
Rather than robots, many of the new
machines will simply be run by conventional computers, said Mr Nahal. “There
will be more demand for software than hardware as we see more automation,”
leading to greater need for engineers.
As computing and technology become
more important, there will be a greater need for employees to be able to use
code and have other technical knowledge, putting pressure on government to
intervene and reshape education programmes.
Other smaller businesses that tailor
services to individuals, dubbed the “new artisan class” by Mr Haldane, may also
spring up.
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Safest jobs
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Most vulnerable
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Recreational therapist
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Library technicians
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Healthcare social workers
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Accounts clerks
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Surgeons
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Insurance underwriters
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Athletic trainers
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Maths technicians
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Clergy
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Sewer workers
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Foresters
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Telemarketers
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Audiologists
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Title examiners
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Choreographers
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Tax preparers
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Dentists
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Cargo handlers
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Farmers
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Watch repairers
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edited from Financial Times
Complete Speech by Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England (Link)
