The US government has put on its futurist hat
and published a report entitled “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds”.
It's full of both grim
predictions and hopeful insights about the world that humans will inhabit
within the next two decades.
One section of Global
Trends 2030 outlines four mega-trends that are poised to create the greatest
impact in the years to come in society, healthcare, government, and resources.
Here's what we can
expect.
Individual empowerment
Over the next 15 to 20
years, continued giving from groups like the World Health Organization and the
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will lift millions of people out of poverty,
the report found, to the extent that the majority of the world's population
will no longer be impoverished.
This new wealth will
produce millions more empowered individuals that will have the means to add to
local and national economies.
The report hedged
slightly, however, because more empowered people will also have greater access
to lethal weapons and networks, which is "a capability formerly the
monopoly of states."
Diffusion of power
Developing countries
in Asia will become more prominent world powers compared to North American and
European nations.
"China alone will
probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few
years before 2030," the report explained. "In a tectonic shift, the
health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to how well the
developing world does — more so than the traditional West."
In other words, having
the most money or people won't necessarily keep a country powerful if others
are more adept at staying connected to data and resources.
Demographic patterns
A combination of
widespread aging, falling fertility, and urbanization will lead to a
dramatically different world in 2030.
With an expected 8.3
billion people, human civilization will be both older and much more focused on
city life. Our infrastructure may improve, but our level of innovation and
output will slow down without younger workers.
"Aging countries
will face an uphill battle in maintaining their living standards," the
report stated.
It's entirely
possible, however, that within the next several decades, humanity will generate
more urban construction than it has in the rest of its history.
Growing demand for
food, water, and energy
A growing middle class
and gains in empowerment will lead the demand for food to rise by 35%, water by
40%, and energy by 50%, government research suggested.
Regions with extreme
weather patterns — like rain-soaked Singapore or muggy Mumbai — will get more
extreme due to the effects of climate change. Dry areas such as northern Africa
and the US Southwest will feel the effects of diminished precipitation
especially hard.
We will still have
enough resources to avoid energy scarcity by 2030; however, whether those
resources include fracking or renewable forms like solar and wind is yet to be
seen.
