Rebuilding Baltimore's collapsed
Francis Scott Key Bridge could take from 18 months to several years and the
cost could be at least $400 million — or more than twice that.
It all depends on many factors– from the
design of the new bridge to how quickly government officials will approve permits and award contracts.
Realistically, the project could take
five to seven years, according to Ben
Schafer, an engineering professor at Johns Hopkins University.
Other experts are more optimistic about the
potential timeline: Sameh Badie, an
engineering professor at George Washington University, said the project could
take as little as 18 months to two years.
The disaster is in some ways similar
to the deadly collapse of Florida's Sunshine Skyway Bridge (photo) ,
which was struck by a freighter in Tampa Bay in 1980. The new bridge took five
years to build, was 19 months late and ran $20 million over budget when it
opened in 1987.
But experts say it's better to look
to more recent bridge disasters for a sense of how quickly reconstruction will
happen.
Jim Tymon, executive director of the
American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, cited the
case of the Interstate 35W bridge in Minnesota, which collapsed into the
Mississippi River in 2007. The new bridge was up in less than 14 months.
One worrying issue is the source of
funding. President Joe Biden said the federal government will pay for the new
bridge, but that remains to be seen.
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota helped to obtain funding quickly to rebuild the I-35W bridge in her state. But she said “Replacing the Baltimore bridge could be more complicated. The I-35W bridge was a very busy federal interstate highway with about 140,000 vehicle crossings a day, compared with about 31,000 for the Baltimore bridge. But, on the other hand, Baltimore is a major port”.
Sameh Badie, of George Washington University, said “The cost
could be between $500 million and $1 billion. In my opinion, the largest
variable will be the design. Steel is expensive these days. Besides, the limited
number of construction companies that can tackle such a project are already
busy with other jobs. A project like this must be expedited, so everything will
cost a lot more".
Hota GangaRao, a West Virginia University engineering professor,
said “The project could cost as little as $400 million. But that's only if the
old bridge's pier foundations are used. Designers may want to locate the new
supports farther away from the shipping channels to avoid another collision. That
will be more steel, more complicated construction and more checks and balances".
Norma Jean Mattei, an emeritus engineering professor at the University
of New Orleans, said replacing the Key Bridge likely will take several years.
Even if it's a priority, the process of designing the bridge, getting permits and
hiring contractors will take a lot of
time. Then you must build it. It's a long process to get a bridge of this type
into operation".
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