Britain will hold a referendum on
June 23 on whether the country will leave the European Union, a process often
referred to as Brexit. How did we get to this point?
What
is Britain deciding?
The
referendum will ask voters whether the country should “remain a member of the
European Union” or “leave the European Union.”
What
is the history?
The
European Union began in 1951 as the European Coal and Steel Community, an
effort by six nations to heal the fissures of World War II through duty-free
trade. In 1957, the Treaty of Rome created the European Economic Community, or
Common Market.
Britain
tried to join later, but President Charles de Gaulle of France vetoed its
application in 1963 and in 1967. Britain finally joined in 1973.
Has
a vote like this happened before?
A
referendum was held in 1975, two years after Britain joined the European
Economic Community, on whether it should stay. More than 67 percent of Britons voted in
favor.
The
arguments for and against
Those
who favor leaving argue that the European Union has changed enormously over the
last four decades with regard to the size and the reach of its bureaucracy,
diminishing British influence and sovereignty.
Those
who want to stay say that a medium-size island needs to be part of a larger
bloc of like-minded countries to have real influence and security in the world,
and that leaving would be economically costly.
Who
is voting?
British
citizens older than 18 can vote, as can citizens abroad who have been
registered to vote at home in the last 15 years. Also eligible are residents of
Britain who are citizens of Ireland or of the Commonwealth, which consists of
53 countries, including Australia, Canada, India and South Africa.
Unlike
in general elections, members of the House of Lords may vote, as can
Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar, a British overseas territory. Citizens of
the European Union living in Britain cannot vote, unless they are citizens of
Cyprus, Ireland or Malta.
Why
the name?
The
referendum is often called Brexit, for British exit from the European Union. It
is a variant of the label Grexit, invented during the Greek debt crisis.
Is
this vote final?
Yes,
at least for the foreseeable future. If Britons vote to leave, there will be an
initial two-year negotiation with the European Union about the terms of the
divorce, which is unlikely to be amicable.
The
negotiation will decide Britain’s relationship with the bloc. The major issues
would surround trade. If Britain wants to remain in the European Union’s common
market — the world’s largest trading bloc, with 500 million people — Brussels
is expected to exact a steep price, in particular to discourage other countries
from leaving.
What
impact would an exit have on Britain’s economy?
This
is an essential and divisive question. The economic effect of an exit would
depend on what settlement is negotiated, especially on whether Britain would
retain access to the single market for duty-free trade and financial services.
But that would probably require accepting freedom of movement and labor for
European Union citizens, which is one of the main complaints the “leave” camp
has about bloc membership.
Most
economists favor remaining in the bloc and say that an exit would cut growth,
weaken the pound and hurt the City of London, Britain’s financial center. Even
economists who favor an exit say that growth would be affected in the short and
medium term, though they also say that Britain would be better off by 2030.
What
is likely to happen?
Broadly
speaking, opinion polls show the population evenly divided. Market analysts and
betting shops estimate that voters will vote to remain in the bloc.
Betfair,
the online betting exchange, gives the “remain” vote a 66 percent probability,
with “leave” at 34 percent and showing upward movement.
from The New York Times
