Travel in 2021 will be easier than in 2020. More flights will take off and land. A greater number of countries will welcome visitors. There will be fewer restrictions. But those gains will come, as statisticians like to say, from a very low base. After a year in which flights came to a near-complete standstill, many countries closed their borders and those that still allowed visitors imposed restrictions, even the slightest loosening will be a welcome improvement.
The signs are encouraging. By September 2020, 115 of
the 217 destinations tracked by the UN World Tourism Organisation had loosened
their travel restrictions. Global hotel-occupancy rates more than doubled from
a low of 22% in April to 47% in August. And travellers are willing to get
going. According to Skyscanner, a price-comparison website, there is plenty of
pent-up demand
Three
big changes will define travel in 2021. The first is frequency and length.
Short breaks across borders will remain difficult. As they open, most countries
will impose two-week quarantines on incoming and returning travellers, turning
a three-day holiday into a 31-day ordeal. As a result, trips will be fewer and
longer. Thailand, which
depended on tourism for more than 20% of its GDP in 2019, is will admit
tourists. But the condition is that they stay for at least 90 days. More
countries will follow suit.
A second change is distance. Domestic tourism will
boom in 2021. Big destination countries are trying to make up for the shortfall
in international visitors by encouraging citizens to holiday at home. In America,
airlines are betting on Hawaii. Singapore is giving its citizens $75 US dollars
to spend on local attractions. Even Airbnb’s home page encourages its
customers to “go near”. Holidaymakers will not be difficult to persuade. Going
abroad, although possible, will remain a hassle: countless forms, the need for
covid-19 tests and the risk of being stranded will all discourage foreign
travel.
The third change will be in the nature of the holiday.
As trips get fewer and longer, those who can work from home will find an
attractive alternative in working from somewhere-a-lot-nicer-than-home, and
with fewer restrictions on movements.
Many
of these changes will persist long after a vaccine has been widely deployed.
Travellers will get used to longer trips, more flexibility and combining work
with leisure. International tourism will eventually recover to its 2019 levels. But, starting in 2021, it will look rather different.
From The Economist (edited)
