Business travel is as old as the traders who
carted silks and spices between ancient civilizations. The executive tapping at
a laptop as other flyers recline their seats and settle down with a glass of
wine is a more recent phenomenon.
Executives, diplomats and government employees, and NGO staff still
trot the globe. Bosses of big companies often spend more time in corporate jets
than with their families. At lower altitude workers travel to fit out
factories, attend trade shows and conferences, launch new products or meet
clients. Business class is a recent arrival and has grown a lot in the past 25
years. According to Bernstein, an equity-research firm, total spending on
international and domestic travel in 1995 amounted to $2.1trn, of which $400bn
was for business. By 2019 around a quarter of the total, or $1.3trn, was spent
on business travel.
Covid-19 has hit corporate travel hard. A poll in January by the Global
Business Travel Association found that 79% of its members had cancelled all or
most business travel. Credit Suisse estimates 2021 will see 65% fewer
international business trips than in 2019.
Bill Gates thinks the shift will be permanent. “My prediction is that over 50% of business
travel will go away,” he says. That may be too pessimistic. Bernstein goes for
up to 24% never coming back. Credit Suisse reckons 10-20% will disappear for
good.
Vaccines, fast-testing regimes and the dropping of travel bans might yet
open the door for leisure travel. But Zoom, Google hangouts, Skype and other video-conferencing
services have a better chance of permanently replacing business-class tickets,
for several reasons. One is that companies badly hit by covid-19 will be under
pressure to cut costs—and travel is an easy target. Another is that, even
though vaccines may reopen borders to many travellers, as long as covid-19 is
at large firms will be reluctant to allow trips not strictly required.
Some types of business trip are harder to conduct over a screen and so they
are likely to revive. Vik Krishnan of McKinsey notes that these include sales
and client meetings. Personal contact, especially when seeking new business, is
hard to replicate digitally. Manufacturers will struggle to monitor remotely
factories in far-away corners of their supply chains.
Trade shows and conferences that bring many people together in close
proximity are more vulnerable, notes Bernstein. Hybrid shows, with some people
present and others joining online may attract a larger audience.
Many low-level internal meetings will migrate permanently to the online
world. One executive who has not flown in months happily notes that the sort of
trip that required flying halfway around the world for one short meeting will
go for good. Though the number of trips is likely to fall, their length may
increase as executives will try to visit several outposts in a single trip.
If around a fifth of business travel never returns, that will have big
consequences for airlines. A rule of thumb is that business class comprises 10%
of tickets, but 40% of revenues and up to 80% of profits. Every 1% fall in business custom knocks 10%
off profits. Some airlines are trying to sell business-class seats to leisure
travellers, but they will not be able to charge as much as to a late-booking
executive. The decline in business travel will mean a smaller business cabin and
higher long-haul economy fares.
A permanent decline will make airline life harder still. However, for
the executive who used to spend weeks of every year on the road, the chance to settle
down in front of a computer screen instead will come as something of a relief.
